Book : Systems Engineering: An Approach to Information-Based Design (1996)
Categories: General Systems • Manufacturing • Systems Engineering • Systems Thinking
Tags: book • development • forecast • hazelrigg • lifecycle • modelling • probability • reliability • risk • systems engineering • systems thinking
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Author(s): Hazelrigg, George A.
Published: 1996 • ISBN: 0134613449 • 469 pages • Delivery Format: Hard Copy - Paperback
Available from: Amazon (US) • Amazon (UK) • Amazon (DE)
Summary
A tentative theory and framework for systems engineering, which accounts for all phases in the life cycle of a product or service such that rational choices can be make concerning design options even when uncertainty and risk are high. Proposes a definition for the emerging field.
Content / Structure
Acknowledgements
Foreward
Preface
1 Introduction to Engineering Design and Decision Making
- 1.1 The Engineering Process
- 1.2 Historical Perspective
- 1.3 The Decision-Making Process
- 1.4 Beans in a Jar
- 1.5 Summary
- References
- Problems
2 Design Options
- 2.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 2.2 The Role of Options in Decision Making
- 2.3 System Objectives
- 2.4 Options in Physical Design
- 2.5 System Manufacture and Deployment
- 2.6 Option in System Operation
- 2.7 End-of-Life Options
- 2.8 Paring the Option Space
- 2.9 Summary
- Reference
- Problems
3 The Fundamentals of Probability Theory
- 3.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 3.2 The Concept of Probability
- 3.3 Properties of a Random Variable
- 3.4 The Mathematics of Random Variables
- 3.5 Some Important Distributions
- 3.6 Baye's Formula
- 3.7 Hypothesis Testing
- 3.8 Summary
- References
- Problems
4 Monte Carlo Modelling
- 4.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 4.2 The Notion of a Monte Carlo Model
- 4.3 Random Number Generators
- 4.4 Sampling a Distribution
- 4.5 Formulating Monte Carlo Models
- 4.6 Analysis of Monte Carlo Model Results
- 4.7 An Alternative Analysis of Monte Carlo Results
- 4.8 Monte Carlo Models with Embedded Decisions
- 4.9 Summary
- Reference
- Problems
5 Optimization
- 5.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 5.2 The Need for Optimization in Systems Engineering
- 5.3 Notions of Minimum and Maximum
- 5.4 Maximation of a Function
- 5.5 Search Methods
- 5.6 Constrained Optimization
- 5.7 Linear Programming
- 5.8 Integer Programming
- 5.9 Network Flow Optimization
- 5.10 The Transportation Problem
- 5.11 Calculus of Variations
- 5.12 Summary
- References
- Problems
6 Engineering Microeconomics
- 6.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 6.2 The Concept of Preference
- 6.3 Equilibrium Economics
- 6.4 Discounting and Present Value
- 6.5 Interest and Annuities
- 6.6 Inflation and Deflation
- 6.7 The Value of a Forecast
- 6.8 Resource Economics
- 6.9 Shadow Prices
- 6.10 Summary
- References
- Problems
7 Utility Theory
- 7.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 7.2 Rationality
- 7.3 The Notion of Utility
- 7.4 Multiattribute Utility Functions
- 7.5 Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
- 7.6 Pareto Analysis
- 7.7 Decision Making in the Presence of Risk
- 7.8 The Value of Better Information
- 7.9 The Value of Improved Safety
- 7.10 Summary
- References
- Problems
8 Forecasting
- 8.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 8.2 Types of Forecasts
- 8.3 Regression Analysis
- 8.4 Logistic Curves
- 8.5 Forecasting Uncertainty
- 8.6 Forecasting Uncertainty with Embedded Decisions
- 8.7 Shortcomings of Forecasts
- 8.8 Summary
- References
- Problems
9 Engineering Systems Modelling
- 9.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 9.2 Engineering Systems and System Models
- 9.3 The Model-Building Process
- 9.4 Sources of Error in Symbolic Models
- 9.5 Design Models
- 9.6 System Life Cycle Modeling
- 9.7 Objective Functions
- 9.8 Summary
- Reference
- Problems
10 Analysis of System Reliability
- 10.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 10.2 Notions of System Reliability
- 10.3 System Reliability Diagrams
- 10.4 Cartoons and Scenarios
- 10.5 Decision and Event Trees
- 10.6 Two DIfferent Monte Carlo Approaches
- 10.7 Probabalistic Risk Assessment
- 10.8 An Alternative to Probabilistic Risk Assessment
- 10.9 Summary
- References
- Problems
11 Cost and Benefit Analysis
- 11.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 11.2 Costs
- 11.3 Modelling System Cost
- 11.4 Probabalistic Cost Analysis
- 11.5 Benefits
- 11.6 Probabalistic Benefit Analysis
- 11.7 Benefit-Cost Analysis
- 11.8 Project Selection
- 11.9 Summary
- References
- Problems
12 Methods of Decision Analysis
- 12.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 12.2 Decisions and Decision Analysis
- 12.3 Backward Induction
- 12.4 Expected Utility Analysis
- 12.5 The Use of Decision/Event Trees with an Infinite Number of Possible Outcomes
- 12.6 Confidence Level Decision Making
- 12.7 Minimax Decision Making
- 12.8 Regret
- 12.9 Bayes Solutions
- 12.10 Summary
- References
- Problems
13 State Transition Matrix Models
- 13.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 13.2 The State Transition Matrix Model
- 13.3 Example Problems
- 13.4 Including Uncertainty in State Transition Matrix Models
- 13.5 Summary
- Problems
14 Modeling the Research and Development Process
- 14.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 14.2 Attributes of Research and Development Activities
- 14.3 A Simulation Approach to Evaluating Research abd Development Activities
- 14.4 Summary of the Simulation Approach
- Reference
- Problems
15 Information
- 15.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 15.2 A Quantitative Measure of Information
- 15.3 Summary
- Problems
16 System Life-Cycle Modeling and Optimization
- 16.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 16.2 Objective Functions of a Firm
- 16.3 Objective Functions of Consumers
- 16.4 Phases of a Product Life Cycle
- 16.5 System Optimization and Improvement
- 16.6 Long-Term Planning
- 16.7 Model Validation
- 16.8 The Use of Model Results in the Design Process
- 16.9 Summary
- Problems
17 Game Theory
- 17.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 17.2 The Description of a Game
- 17.3 Types of Games
- 17.4 Example Games
- 17.5 Information in the Context of Game Theory
- 17.6 Mixed Strategy Games
- 17.7 The Nash Model
- 17.8 The Minimax Theorem
- 17.9 Solution of a Two-Player, Zero-Sum Game by Linear Programming
- 17.10 Summary
- References
- Problems
18 Management of Engineering Systems Design and Operation
- 18.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 18.2 The Management of Engineering Systems Design
- 18.3 The Management of Engineering Systems Operation
- 18.4 Continuing Product Improvement
- 18.5 Summary
Problems19 Case Studies
- 19.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
- 19.2 Solution of the Bean Jar Problem
- 19.3 Am Undersea Cable Design
- 19.4 Summary of the Systems Engineering Approach
20 Concluding Remarks
Appendix A Vectors and Matrices
Appendix B A Test for the Utility Independence of Attributes
Appendix C Determination of the Weighting Factors in a Linearly Additive Utility Function
Name Index
Topic Index
About the Author
Copyright 1996 by Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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