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Book : Systems Engineering: An Approach to Information-Based Design (1996)

Summary

A tentative theory and framework for systems engineering, which accounts for all phases in the life cycle of a product or service such that rational choices can be make concerning design options even when uncertainty and risk are high. Proposes a definition for the emerging field.

Content / Structure

Acknowledgements

Foreward

Preface

1 Introduction to Engineering Design and Decision Making

• 1.1 The Engineering Process
• 1.2 Historical Perspective
• 1.3 The Decision-Making Process
• 1.4 Beans in a Jar
• 1.5 Summary
• References
• Problems

2 Design Options

• 2.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 2.2 The Role of Options in Decision Making
• 2.3 System Objectives
• 2.4 Options in Physical Design
• 2.5 System Manufacture and Deployment
• 2.6 Option in System Operation
• 2.7 End-of-Life Options
• 2.8 Paring the Option Space
• 2.9 Summary
• Reference
• Problems

3 The Fundamentals of Probability Theory

• 3.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 3.2 The Concept of Probability
• 3.3 Properties of a Random Variable
• 3.4 The Mathematics of Random Variables
• 3.5 Some Important Distributions
• 3.6 Baye's Formula
• 3.7 Hypothesis Testing
• 3.8 Summary
• References
• Problems

4 Monte Carlo Modelling

• 4.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 4.2 The Notion of a Monte Carlo Model
• 4.3 Random Number Generators
• 4.4 Sampling a Distribution
• 4.5 Formulating Monte Carlo Models
• 4.6 Analysis of Monte Carlo Model Results
• 4.7 An Alternative Analysis of Monte Carlo Results
• 4.8 Monte Carlo Models with Embedded Decisions
• 4.9 Summary
• Reference
• Problems

5 Optimization

• 5.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 5.2 The Need for Optimization in Systems Engineering
• 5.3 Notions of Minimum and Maximum
• 5.4 Maximation of a Function
• 5.5 Search Methods
• 5.6 Constrained Optimization
• 5.7 Linear Programming
• 5.8 Integer Programming
• 5.9 Network Flow Optimization
• 5.10 The Transportation Problem
• 5.11 Calculus of Variations
• 5.12 Summary
• References
• Problems

6 Engineering Microeconomics

• 6.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 6.2 The Concept of Preference
• 6.3 Equilibrium Economics
• 6.4 Discounting and Present Value
• 6.5 Interest and Annuities
• 6.6 Inflation and Deflation
• 6.7 The Value of a Forecast
• 6.8 Resource Economics
• 6.9 Shadow Prices
• 6.10 Summary
• References
• Problems

7 Utility Theory

• 7.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 7.2 Rationality
• 7.3 The Notion of Utility
• 7.4 Multiattribute Utility Functions
• 7.5 Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
• 7.6 Pareto Analysis
• 7.7 Decision Making in the Presence of Risk
• 7.8 The Value of Better Information
• 7.9 The Value of Improved Safety
• 7.10 Summary
• References
• Problems

8 Forecasting

• 8.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 8.2 Types of Forecasts
• 8.3 Regression Analysis
• 8.4 Logistic Curves
• 8.5 Forecasting Uncertainty
• 8.6 Forecasting Uncertainty with Embedded Decisions
• 8.7 Shortcomings of Forecasts
• 8.8 Summary
• References
• Problems

9 Engineering Systems Modelling

• 9.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 9.2 Engineering Systems and System Models
• 9.3 The Model-Building Process
• 9.4 Sources of Error in Symbolic Models
• 9.5 Design Models
• 9.6 System Life Cycle Modeling
• 9.7 Objective Functions
• 9.8 Summary
• Reference
• Problems

10 Analysis of System Reliability

• 10.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 10.2 Notions of System Reliability
• 10.3 System Reliability Diagrams
• 10.4 Cartoons and Scenarios
• 10.5 Decision and Event Trees
• 10.6 Two DIfferent Monte Carlo Approaches
• 10.7 Probabalistic Risk Assessment
• 10.8 An Alternative to Probabilistic Risk Assessment
• 10.9 Summary
• References
• Problems

11 Cost and Benefit Analysis

• 11.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 11.2 Costs
• 11.3 Modelling System Cost
• 11.4 Probabalistic Cost Analysis
• 11.5 Benefits
• 11.6 Probabalistic Benefit Analysis
• 11.7 Benefit-Cost Analysis
• 11.8 Project Selection
• 11.9 Summary
• References
• Problems

12 Methods of Decision Analysis

• 12.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 12.2 Decisions and Decision Analysis
• 12.3 Backward Induction
• 12.4 Expected Utility Analysis
• 12.5 The Use of Decision/Event Trees with an Infinite Number of Possible Outcomes
• 12.6 Confidence Level Decision Making
• 12.7 Minimax Decision Making
• 12.8 Regret
• 12.9 Bayes Solutions
• 12.10 Summary
• References
• Problems

13 State Transition Matrix Models

• 13.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 13.2 The State Transition Matrix Model
• 13.3 Example Problems
• 13.4 Including Uncertainty in State Transition Matrix Models
• 13.5 Summary
• Problems

14 Modeling the Research and Development Process

• 14.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 14.2 Attributes of Research and Development Activities
• 14.3 A Simulation Approach to Evaluating Research abd Development Activities
• 14.4 Summary of the Simulation Approach
• Reference
• Problems

15 Information

• 15.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 15.2 A Quantitative Measure of Information
• 15.3 Summary
• Problems

16 System Life-Cycle Modeling and Optimization

• 16.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 16.2 Objective Functions of a Firm
• 16.3 Objective Functions of Consumers
• 16.4 Phases of a Product Life Cycle
• 16.5 System Optimization and Improvement
• 16.6 Long-Term Planning
• 16.7 Model Validation
• 16.8 The Use of Model Results in the Design Process
• 16.9 Summary
• Problems

17 Game Theory

• 17.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 17.2 The Description of a Game
• 17.3 Types of Games
• 17.4 Example Games
• 17.5 Information in the Context of Game Theory
• 17.6 Mixed Strategy Games
• 17.7 The Nash Model
• 17.8 The Minimax Theorem
• 17.9 Solution of a Two-Player, Zero-Sum Game by Linear Programming
• 17.10 Summary
• References
• Problems

18 Management of Engineering Systems Design and Operation

• 18.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 18.2 The Management of Engineering Systems Design
• 18.3 The Management of Engineering Systems Operation
• 18.4 Continuing Product Improvement
• 18.5 Summary
Problems

19 Case Studies

• 19.1 The Purpose of this Chapter
• 19.2 Solution of the Bean Jar Problem
• 19.3 Am Undersea Cable Design
• 19.4 Summary of the Systems Engineering Approach

20 Concluding Remarks

Appendix A Vectors and Matrices

Appendix B A Test for the Utility Independence of Attributes

Appendix C Determination of the Weighting Factors in a Linearly Additive Utility Function

Name Index

Topic Index

About the Author

Copyright 1996 by Prentice-Hall, Inc.

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